Investigating of Macroecoprudential Assessment Against Economic Resilience During Pandemic Covid-19
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Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has brought about changes in recent times, one of which impacts economic conditions. This study aims to investigate government policies through the National Economic Recovery (PEN) with a macroeconomic approach to the condition of economic resilience. Macroeconomic indicators use interest rates (IR), inflation, IHSG, money supply (MS), and tax revenues to see the effect on economic resilience, which consists of economic growth (GDP), unemployment, and poverty. The data used is a time series with an observation period from January 2017 to June 2021. The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that the policy package through the National Economic Recovery (PEN) effectively overcame the economic downturn during the pandemic, although it is not yet fully optimal. At least policies based on fiscal and monetary can bring Indonesia's economic growth in a positive direction. So that in the long term, unemployment and poverty due to a decrease in people's purchasing power can be overcome.
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References
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Weinstock, Lida. R. “Fiscal Policy: Economic Effects.” Congressional Research Service 10 (2019).
Widarjono, Agus. Ekonometrika Teori Dan Aplikasi. Yogyakarta: Ekonisia FE UII, 2013.
Yolanda, Y. “Analysis of Factors Affecting Inflation and Its Impact on Human Development Index and Poverty in Indonesia.” European Research Studies Journal 20, no. 4 (2017).
Aljileedi Mustafa Rayhan, Amyir, and Heri Yanto. “Factors Influencing Unemployment Rate: A Comparison Among Five Asean Countries.” Journal of Economic Education 9, no. 1 (2020): 37–45.
Bello, Muhammad Zayyanu, Email Adress, Mubarak Abdullahi Saulawa, Email Adress, and Money Supply. “Reationship Between Inflation, Money Supply, Interest Rate and Income Growth (RGDP) in Nigeria 1980-2010. an Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development 4, no. 8 (2013): 7–13.
Bolton, Patrick. “The Poverty of Monetarism.” China Economic Quarterly International 1, no. 1 (2021): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ceqi.2020.11.002.
Buhaerah, Pihri. “Kajian Ekonomi & Keuangan Pembangunan Keuangan Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi : Studi” 1, no. 2 (2017).
Cashin, Paul, Catherine A. Pattillo, Ratna Sahay, and Paolo Mauro. “Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction: Stylized Facts and An Overview of Research.” IMF Working Papers 01, no. 135 (2001): 1.
Chaitip, Prasert, Kanchana Chokethaworn, Chukiat Chaiboonsri, and Monekeo Khounkhalax. “Money Supply Influencing on Economic Growth-Wide Phenomena of AEC Open Region.” Procedia Economics and Finance 24, no. July (2015): 108–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00626-7.
Chugunov, Igor, Mykola Pasichnyi, Valeriy Koroviy, Tetiana Kaneva, and Andriy Nikitishin. “Fiscal and Monetary Policy of Economic Development.” European Journal of Sustainable Development 10, no. 1 (2021): 42–52.
Dua, Pami. Monetary Policy Framework in India. Indian Economic Review. Vol. 55. Springer India, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-020-00085-3.
Fadillah, Abi. “Marko Ekonomi Dan Pengentasan Kemiskinan Di Indonesia.” Ascarya: Journal of Islamic Science, Culture, and Social Studies 1, no. 2 (September 2021).
Fei, John C. H., and Gustav Ranis. “Economic Development in Historical Perspective.” In Discussion Papers, 68, 1968.
Ghozali, Imam, and D. Ratmono. Analisis Multivariat Dan Ekonometrika: Teori, Konsep Dan Aplikasi Dengan Eviews 10. 2nd ed. Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro, 2017.
Gujarati, Damodar N. Gujarati: Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition. New York, 2004.
Hailu, Degol, and John Weeks. “Macroeconomic Policy for Growth and Poverty Reduction: An Application to Post-Conflict and Resource-Rich Countries” (2011).
Ihsanuddin. “9 Kebijakan Ekonomi Jokowi Di Tengah Pandemi Covid-19: Penangguhan Cicilan Hingga Relaksasi Pajak Artikel Ini Telah Tayang Di Kompas.Com Dengan Judul "9 Kebijakan Ekonomi Jokowi Di Tengah Pandemi Covid-19: Penangguhan Cicilan Hingga Relaksasi Pajak.” Kompas.Com. Jakarta, March 2020.
El Karfi, Kawtar, and Driss Mentagui. “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.” Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control Systems 12, no. 5 Special Issue (2020).
Kaur, Gurmit, and Siti Ayu Jalil. “Examining the Linkage between Poverty and Macroeconomic Variables in Malaysia: A Co-Integration Analysis.” Information Management and Business Review 9, no. 2 (June 2017).
Kolibu, Meinny, Vekie A. Rumate, and Daisy S.M. Engka. “Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, Investasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Provinsi Sulawesi Utara.” Jurnal Pembangunan Ekonomi dan Keuangan Daerah, 19(3), 19, no. 3 (2019).
Lakner, Christoph, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Mario Negre, and Espen Beer Prydz. “How Much Does Reducing Inequality Matter for Global Poverty?” How Much Does Reducing Inequality Matter for Global Poverty?, no. June (2020).
Lewis, W. Arthur. “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour.” The Manchester School 22, no. 2 (May 1954).
Mahadika, Hafiansyah, and Wisnu Wibowo. “The Effect of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Rate in Indonesia.” Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan 6, no. 1 (2021).
Masitoh, Siti. “LPEM FEB UI: Pandemi Covid-19 Membuat Tingkat Kemiskinan Dan Pengangguran Meningkat.” Kontan.Co.Id. Jakarta, August 2021.
Muhafidin, Didin. “The Role of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy in Environmental Degradation in Indonesia.” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 10, no. 3 (2020).
Murjani, Ahmadi. “Short-Run and Long-Run Impact of Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Growth Towards Poverty in Indonesia: Ardl Approach.” Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan 2, no. 1 (2019).
Nainggolan, Edward UP. “Strategi Kebijakan Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PEN).” DJKN. Jakarta, August 2020.
Omar, Md Abdullah, and Kazuo Inaba. “Does Financial Inclusion Reduce Poverty and Income Inequality in Developing Countries? A Panel Data Analysis.” Journal of Economic Structures 9, no. 1 (2020).
Saeed, Maryam. “The Effects of Monetary Policy on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan.” SSRN Electronic Journal (September 2020).
Son, Hyun, and Nanak Kakwani. “Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: Initial Conditions Matter” (September 2004).
Sultana, Nahida. “Impacts of Money Supply , Inflation Rate and Interest Rate on Economic Growth : A Case of Bangladesh.” Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (JETIR) 5, no. 10 (2018).
Tandeilin, Eduardus. Portofolio Dan Investasi: Teori Dan Aplikasi. 1st ed. Yogyakarta: Kanisius, 2010.
The World Bank. Global Economic Prospects. Global Economic Prospects. Washington, 2021.
Urbanovsky, Tomas. “Interconnection of Interest Rate, Price Level. Money Supply and Real GDP: The Case of the Czech Republic” 220 (2016).
Vincentius, Gitiyarko. “Kebijakan Pemerintah Menangani Covid-19 Sepanjang Semester II 2020.” Kompaspedia.
Wei, Xiaoyun, and Liyan Han. “The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Transmission of Monetary Policy to Financial Markets.” International Review of Financial Analysis 74, no. 37 (2021).
Weinstock, Lida. R. “Fiscal Policy: Economic Effects.” Congressional Research Service 10 (2019).
Widarjono, Agus. Ekonometrika Teori Dan Aplikasi. Yogyakarta: Ekonisia FE UII, 2013.
Yolanda, Y. “Analysis of Factors Affecting Inflation and Its Impact on Human Development Index and Poverty in Indonesia.” European Research Studies Journal 20, no. 4 (2017).
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May 27, 2024
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